Michelle Evans of Euromonitor International describes retail commerce in 2040.
Not many of us shop they way we did 10 years ago, when the internet was still in its infancy. But in the next two decades, shopping as we know it today will largely cease to exist, given the convergence of broadband internet, artificial intelligence and self-service technology.
The rate of technological change is accelerating, and by 2040, consumers will be using automation for more of their daily tasks.
Michelle Evans, head of digital consumer at research group Euromonitor International, offered a preview of that future during a presentation titled, “Commerce 2040: redefining how and where consumers shop,” at the recent Money20/20 show in Las Vegas.
Technological advances will continue to accelerate and redefine how people live, work, shop and play, Evans said. The five key technologies driving change are worker enhancements (self-service), AI, personalization, augmented reality and supply chain.
Retail is one of six environments that will be impacted by technology, Evans said, although all six environments — the home, retail, entertainment, transportation, restaurants and “on the go” — are interrelated.
At the start of her talk, Evans asked the audience to say which of those six environments will change the most by 2040. The text poll found retail led with 33 percent; followed by the home at 30 percent; on-the-go, 22 percent; transportation, 13 percent; entertainment, 2 percent; and restaurants, zero.
What about physical stores?
Online sales will grow 10 times faster than sales of products bought in stores over the next five years, Evans said. But like other researchers have already noted, the physical store will not disappear since 47 percent of consumers who buy online want to try a product before buying it.
But stores will not look as they do today. Evans presented an illustration of the convenience store in 2040, where a drone delivers a package to a store that offers pickup lockers accessed 24/7 with biometric identification. The shopping experience will be seamless, immediate, experiential and individualistic, she said.
In addition to convenience, consumers will crave experiences — an area where technology will play a major role, Evans said. Thirty-nine percent of consumers want to spend money on an experience rather than on tangible products, she said. “Consumers increasingly value doing over acquiring,” she said, adding consumers want to experience things in ways that are seamless, authentic and shareable.
Retailers and brands will develop experiences such as entertainment centers where consumers engage in games with holographic players and get real-time feedback on their performance.
Entertainment facilities will have big screens displaying social media allowing fans to participate in the experience.
“Live entertainment is shifting from an ‘end seat’ to a ‘choose your own experience,'” she said, adding these experiences will include augmented reality. In such facilities, consumer brands will create experiences that will promote their brands. “All of this is about creating that experience that they are seeing on the field and around them.”
Distribution of consumer products will vary based on the type of product, she said, as some will continue to be sold in stores while others will be available in “experience centers.”
A vision of tomorrow’s home
With technology changing how consumers function at home, the products and services that consumers buy for the home will also change. Technology in the home will impact durable goods manufacturers, retailers and third-party service providers, Evans said.
In 2023, 200 million home speakers such as Google Home will be sold by 2023, doubling 2017’s number, Evans said, while by 2030, 65 percent of households will have access to broadband internet compared to 48 percent in 2018.
Technology in the home will also give consumer goods manufacturers and retailers more insight into consumer needs. “We’re going to have more data from a lot of different sources,” Evans said.
In 2040, data will be more important to commerce as companies deliver tailored experiences to create more personalized relationships with consumers.
The technology in the home will be about delivering convenience, simplicity, security and affordability, Evans said. Convenience will be delivered through automation of replenishment purchases that enable consumers to “buy back time,” she said.
Easier methods of monitoring and controlling home appliances will allow consumers to simplify their lives, while smartphone apps will allow them to monitor usage of appliances and save money. Security, meanwhile, will remain a basic human need and will be one of the biggest drivers of home technology.
Automation will play an especially big role in the kitchen, Evans said, where robotic assistants will carry deliveries from outside the house. The refrigerator will display information about meeting nutrition needs based on what the consumer removes from its shelves.
As for the bedroom, Evans said robots will play with children.
Today’s “digital darlings,” such as Airbnb, Uber and Facebook, leveraged technology to offer new ways to do business, Evans said. The next stage will require more infrastructure changes to actualize the next iteration of commerce.
Consumers, however, will be more empowered than ever since they will be in a position to dictate who has access to their data.
Topics: Automated Retail / Vending, Consumer Behavior, Data Security, Kiosks / Self-Service, Merchandising, Online Retailing, Robotics / AI, Technology
Elliot Maras is the editor of KioskMarketplace.com and FoodTruckOperator.com.
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